A train to run through the Himalaya, China agrees to build the railway to Nepal, is it worth it for China to spend a lot of money?
September 09, 2022
Date: September 9, 2022
Author: Zhang Jiadong
About the author: Zhang Jiadong is a professor at Fudan University, China. He is also the director of the Center for South Asian Studies, Fudan University.
More info: https://iis.fudan.edu.cn/en/86/90/c16631a165520/page.psp
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Recently, the Nepali ambassador to China talked about the China-Nepal railway project. He said that the China-Nepal Railway is the most concerned demand of Nepal at present, and the opening of the railway will bring dreams and prosperity to Nepal. This project has become a unique century project in Nepal's history. So how should China calculate the economic and strategic accounts behind this century project?
At the beginning of this century, the Sino-Nepali railway has already paved the way. In fact, as early as the beginning of this century, there has been news of the cross-border railway between China and Nepal. At that time, the Chinese side told the visiting Nepali foreign minister that the construction of the branch line of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway had started, and the end point was in Xigatze, which is less than 500 kilometers away from the China-Nepal border. The branch line project will be completed within three years, and then the China-Nepal Railway will also be put on the agenda.
However, due to the fact that the China-Nepal Railway needs to cross the Himalayas, the construction is difficult and the cost is high and the China-Nepal Railway has only gradually started preliminary preparations in recent years. In mid-August, a spokesperson for my country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China and Nepal have agreed to build a China-Nepal cross-border railway project.
Nepal is very happy to be able to reduce its dependence on India
For Nepal, the pressure from India will be greatly eased after the opening of the China-Nepal railway. Nepal is surrounded by India on three sides and has closer relations with India. At present, the passenger and freight railway between India and Nepal has also achieved double-passage. The passenger train can transport 1,000 passengers from Bihar, India to the capital of Nepal at a speed of 100 kilometers per hour.
However, the convenient transportation also makes it easier for India to control Nepal. In May this year, due to dissatisfaction with the internal political changes in Nepal, India imposed a blockade on Nepal, prohibiting the passage of freight vehicles. The unofficial blockade in India, which began in 2015, has been staged many times.
It can reduce dependence on India and increase trade with China. As a beneficiary country, Nepal naturally welcomes this project. India is bound to object. In addition to considering the geopolitical benefits brought by the railway, our country also needs to calculate the economic account behind the railway, as well as the comprehensive judgment of potential risks and construction difficulties.
Potential benefits of launching the China-Nepal railway
Nepal's total GDP is not high, only 36.29 billion US dollars. The per capita GDP is only US$1,223, ranking 188th among more than 200 countries and regions in the world. A notable feature of Nepal's economy is the high proportion of import trade in its foreign trade. Nepal is a landlocked country backed by the Himalayas. Due to its poor industrial base, many industrial products depend on imports. Taking 2021 as an example, the total trade volume between China and Nepal will be 12.77 billion yuan, but 12.598 billion yuan of which will be exported from China to Nepal, ranging from fresh fruit to mobile phones. The value of goods exported from Nepal to China is only 170 million yuan. Once the China-Nepal Railway is opened, it can be expected that Chinese products will be able to win more Nepali markets. However, for this amount of trade, the current road transport is actually sufficient. Building another railway will inevitably lead to insufficient food for railways and highways. Idle resources will inevitably lead to waste. In addition, a railway cannot offset India's all-round location advantage. The trade diversion effect will not be too significant.
The cost of the century project is not low. Is it cost-effective for China?
The construction cost of the railway on the plateau is destined to be high. The Sichuan-Tibet railway plan before the China-Nepal Railway will cost more than 300 billion yuan. Although the scale of the China-Nepal Railway is much smaller, it is not cheap to connect the train to the Himalayas. The Sino-Nepali railway with a total length of more than 500 kilometers, according to the estimated estimate, will cost more than 8 billion US dollars, and the construction cost is not cheap. And this figure is only a preliminary estimate before a large-scale survey. After the project starts, the 8 billion US dollars will definitely not be enough.
The Lhasa to Xigatze section of the railway, opened a few years ago, cost an astonishing 50,000 yuan per meter. The high construction cost mainly comes from the cost of opening the tunnel. The proportion of tunnels from Lhasa to Xigatze has reached about 33%. The terrain of the China-Nepal Railway is even more dangerous, and the ratio of tunnels to viaducts is expected to be no less than 90%. From this point of view, the cost of the China-Nepal Railway can be imagined.
China-Nepal Railway is very risky and prospect is uncertain
Not only is the cost of construction high, but the railway also has various geological and international political risks. The entire China-Nepal Railway is located on a plateau above 1,000 meters above sea level, which is not only high but also has a large altitude span. When the railway departs from Xigatze, the altitude is about 4000 meters. When crossing the Himalayas, the altitude is often around 6,000 meters. After entering Nepal, the altitude often drops to about 2,000 meters within a few dozen kilometers.
Although large-span changes in altitude can be overcome, construction and operating costs will be incurred. Moreover, the Himalayas are a very young mountain range with high occurrence of geological disasters such as earthquakes and mudslides. This will have a long-term and inescapable impact on the construction and operation of the railway.
In addition, the international political factors after the completion of the railway also have to be considered, in short, the stability of Nepal's domestic politics. After spending huge sums of money on the construction of the railway, if the domestic political situation in Nepal changes, the pro-India government will come to power and cut off the railway. It's all possible.
Overall, the Sino-Nepali railway project is not economically necessary but a high-risk, high-investment, low-return infrastructure project. Of course, the Sino-Nepali railway may bring some geopolitical benefits to China. However, if the geological risks and India's geopolitical advantages are taken into account, we need to give the China-Nepal railway project more thought, rather than rushing it forward. After all, if the railway is built to Xigatze, no matter what the economic benefits are, ‘the meat will rot in its own pot’(肉都烂在自己锅里)[1]. To repair the railway to Kathmandu is another calculation.
*** The link to the original article can be accessed here.
[1]肉都烂在自己锅里(ròu dōu làn zài zìjǐ guō lǐ) : meat rotted in its own pot. Indicating that the benefits have to be realized internally first before crossing the border
"The passenger train can transport 1,000 passengers from Bihar, India to the capital of Nepal at a speed of 100 kilometers per hour." ??
"CAN transport ....or "IS INTENDED to transport", once and if built?